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 Increase in violent crime for St. Paul & Minneapolis 
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 Post subject: Increase in violent crime for St. Paul & Minneapolis
PostPosted: Wed Aug 10, 2005 10:53 am 
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http://www.startribune.com/stories/587/5552053.html But don't worry: "We're trying to figure out what the trends are and address them so we can make a difference," Nancy Haas. Like I really want to wait around for a chart to predict when to protect me.


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 10, 2005 5:56 pm 
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Before we get too excited about the percentage increase, we need to know the baseline (which the reporter ever-so-conveniently omitted).

Let us say there were 2 armed robberies in St. Paul last year and 4 this year.

Stating that armed robberies are up 100% makes it sound like the crime wave of the century even though 4 armed robberies in a city the size of St. Paul is statistically insignificant.

Remember, there are lies, damned lies and statistics.


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 10, 2005 6:13 pm 
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Orange Buzzard wrote:
Before we get too excited about the percentage increase, we need to know the baseline (which the reporter ever-so-conveniently omitted).
Yup. We also need to take a look at why what's happening is happening. If, for example, it's that Minneapolis is cracking down on the gangbangers and they're moving their base of operations to St. Paul, that's bad for St. Paul, but isn't necessarily a bad reflection on the authorities there.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 3:27 am 
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http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm#nibrs was my source. 2004 data only has MSP and not the whole metro area. No 2005 data available from FBI or BCA. I have a spread sheet compiled of the 2000-2004 data, email me if you want it.

2004 crime numbers for Minneapolis and STP. Percentage is change from 2003

Violent Crime - Percent Change
4.27% 4,710
10.56% 2,408

Murder - Percent Change
17.39% 54
0.00% 20

Forcible Rape - Percent Change
0.00% 384
0.92% 219

Robbery - Percent Change
2.46% 2,246
6.27% 678

Aggravated Assault - Percent Change
6.91% 2,026
14.43% 1,491

Property Crime - Percent Change
-7.31% 18,913
-3.72% 13,036

Burglary - Percent Change
6.14%
4.42%

Larceny-theft - Percent Change
-15.29% 10,507
-5.90% 7,882

Motor Vehicle Theft - Percent Change
3.69% 3,649
-6.99% 1,944

Arson - Percent Change
n/a
13.78% 223


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:09 am 
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From my perspective, and my opinion:

I believe crime went down when our first carry law went into effect. It stayed down until it was repealed. Then there was a slight increase. Then when it was passed again, there was a sharp increase.

My opinion WAS (I don't know if it still is) that crime rose to push people to consider/obtain a permit. (read: higher power) But, it seems to be really bad in the last few weeks.

One possible explaination is that the criminals were scared at first, then they tested the waters and found that there hasn't been many 'incidents' with permit holders stopping them from commiting crimes. So they feel safe committing crimes again. ?


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 Post subject: To be totally blunt...
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 9:45 am 
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To be as blunt as I can possibly be on this...

I don't think crime is going to drop until a few would be muggers and robbers get shot by a few permit holders. Mind you I most definitely do NOT want to be one of those permit holders.

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 Post subject: Re: To be totally blunt...
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 5:29 pm 
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johngagemn wrote:
To be as blunt as I can possibly be on this...

I don't think crime is going to drop until a few would be muggers and robbers get shot by a few permit holders. Mind you I most definitely do NOT want to be one of those permit holders.

Well, me neither, but I disagree, I think. The mechanism that Lott points to suggests that what causes the effect is the news about LOTS of permits being issued, not news about permit holder shootings.

It's one of the reasons that I very much want to see the number of permit holders top 50,000 soon, and go over 100,000 sooner than later. That would, I think, make an impact.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 12, 2005 7:52 am 
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I do agree that the number of permits issued would have an effect as well. I'm sure the STRIB will be more than happy to oblige us with a frontpage headline of panic when permits hit 100,000 too. Heck they can probably get Rebecca and all of her friends to help write it, and then throw in a token hacked up quote from you or Joe or Tim.

I guess I just figure that most robbers, rapists and muggers probably aren't smart enough to calculate how much worse their odds have become. Something just tells me that a well publicized story or two of one of their fellow scumbags in the ER might give them a better hint.

Of course we'd have to get the media to actually report on the story too, and that could be a bigger challenge than getting the law passed in the first place...

God forbid that they report about the good that the a firearm might do!

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 Post subject: Ahem...
PostPosted: Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:25 am 
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By the way...

The name of a city above is misspelled.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe it is spelled MURDERAPOLIS.

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